The perception of security that Israel may have had since its creation has faded in three days. Zionist settlers will remember their streets burning and missiles flying over their heads for decades, instilling in them the same fear they once imposed on lesser powers such as the Palestinians or the Lebanese. A new cycle opens in the perception of Israel’s population, where the vulnerability so often denied has become evident.
Iran knows it is suffering an attack that it can hardly win on the military terrain unless other powers such as China — the country most affected by the attack on Iran — decide to be more active in their support. It is not unlikely that this may happen, especially with the participation of other European powers. Chinese analysts must at this moment be assessing the possibility of intervening in the conflict and forcing the United States to withdraw its military bases from the Gulf countries in order to stabilize the region. China has more than enough means of deterrence with global influence. In any case, Iranian pride will make any regime replacement impossible and I am sure it will remain firm until the end, and given that this is an existential war, they will not hesitate to amplify it as widely as possible so that others are the ones who decide to stop it. The assassination of its Supreme Leader is not trivial, and Iran and its army are not militias like Hamas or Hezbollah; it is a well-armed army with the capacity to produce new weapons and to innovate in order to make the conflict last far beyond what Israel and the United States would wish.
Egypt knows that Israel longs for the construction of Greater Israel and that the fall of Iran would mean that it would be the only country the Zionist project would have to worry about destabilizing in order to displace the two million Palestinians from Gaza into its territory and, over time, generate enough chaos to destabilize the powerful African giant in order to occupy its territory. Egypt, and its intelligence services, know that the fall of Iran would not be in their interest because it would place the country at the mercy of Israel’s interests, and that today’s United States will always side with the Zionist entity.
Europe stands at a crossroads, and if the genocide in Gaza broke some seams, the intervention of European countries coming to the aid of Israel and the United States in this colonial war may end up breaking the alliance. The United Kingdom, Germany and France may dynamite the European Union. It remains to be seen whether their peoples are sufficiently organized to stop them. Wars against the Muslim world can only be supported from an Islamophobic and colonial perspective, something that Western media have been responsible for instilling for years. It is time to see how permeable these narratives have been, or whether the collective memory of indiscriminate attacks on European soil endures.
Venezuela is not being sufficiently mentioned in this war. Without the capture of Maduro and the securing of Venezuelan oil by Trump, the attacks against Iran might not have taken place, or at least not so soon. It is possible that Venezuela and its leadership have fallen into a trap in which they have ceded sovereignty in exchange for nothing. Bread for today and hunger for tomorrow. It does not seem that U.S. companies are going to invest the billions in infrastructure required to make stable production profitable in the short term, and the relations cultivated during Chávez’s mandate, based on respect and anti-imperialism, have definitely been broken, as shown in the foreign ministry’s statement regarding the attack on Iran. Venezuela walks alone.